Paul Singer's Elliott Targets Gold, Consumer Staples With New Puts — Bets Big On Tech
News Summary
Paul Singer's Elliott Investment Management significantly shifted its market hedging strategy in Q3 2025, according to its latest 13F filing. The firm dramatically increased its bearish bet against gold miners by adding 7.5 million shares to its put position on the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), bringing the total to $878.6 million. Conversely, Elliott initiated a major bullish position with call options on the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, valued at $750.4 million. The firm also exited its largest prior position, a $1.33 billion put option on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), indicating a move away from a broad market bearish stance towards more sector-specific opportunities and risks. Additionally, Elliott established new put positions totaling $1.175 billion on the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) and $714.7 million on the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE).
Background
Elliott Investment Management, founded by Paul Singer, is a prominent hedge fund known for its activist investing and macro strategies. Its 13F filings are quarterly reports submitted by institutional investment managers to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), disclosing their holdings of investment assets like stocks, options, and convertible bonds at a specific point in time, offering market participants a glimpse into the strategies of major funds. This report, reflecting holdings as of September 30, 2025, provides insights into the fund's views on various asset classes within the current (2025) market environment, particularly influenced by key macro factors such as global economic cycles, inflation expectations, and the ongoing performance of technology stocks.
In-Depth AI Insights
Why is Elliott Fund making a significant bullish bet on technology stocks while simultaneously shorting gold miners? Elliott's move likely reflects a clear judgment on future macroeconomic trends. Shorting gold miners typically suggests an expectation of easing inflationary pressures, rising real interest rates, or a strengthening U.S. dollar, all of which could diminish gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Concurrently, a substantial bullish bet on the Nasdaq 100 (dominated by tech stocks) indicates Elliott's belief that the technology sector still possesses strong growth potential, even in an environment potentially characterized by higher rates or a stronger dollar. This could be based on confidence in the continuous innovation and profitability of disruptive technologies like AI and cloud computing, or an expectation that tech giants will further consolidate their market dominance in future economic expansions. Why is Elliott Fund abandoning its put options on the S&P 500 while concentrating short positions on consumer staples and energy sectors? Exiting the S&P 500 put options suggests Elliott no longer anticipates a broad, systemic market downturn, opting instead for a more selective strategy. Concentrated short positions in consumer staples and energy sectors could be based on the following judgments: - Consumer Staples: This sector typically acts defensively during economic uncertainty, but if the fund anticipates sustained strong economic growth or shifts in consumer spending patterns that dim the sector's growth prospects, it could become a short target. High valuations might also be a contributing factor. - Energy: Shorting the energy sector might reflect expectations of declining demand due to global economic slowdown, increased crude supply, or dissipation of geopolitical risk premiums. Furthermore, the Trump administration's energy policies might favor increased domestic production, potentially further suppressing oil prices. This indicates Elliott is seeking alpha through sector-specific plays rather than broad market hedges, betting that certain defensive or cyclical industries may face unique headwinds. What deeper insights does Elliott Fund's portfolio adjustment reveal about market sentiment and future trends? Elliott's strategic shift reveals its profound understanding that the current market is in a phase of "divergence" rather than "broad-based gains or declines." The preference for tech stocks, coupled with short positions in traditional defensive (consumer staples) and cyclical (energy) sectors, suggests a belief that market capital will continue to chase high-quality, high-growth tech innovation, while other sectors may face pressure from macroeconomic headwinds or overvaluation. This strategy reflects a conviction that even in 2025, the market will be driven by a few leaders, and hedge funds are actively using sophisticated maneuvers to avoid non-systemic risks and capture alpha in specific areas. This could signal future market dynamics characterized by stronger sector rotation and structural opportunities rather than overall directional trends.