Bitcoin bull run ‘might actually be over’ as Wyckoff pattern points to $86K
News Summary
Bitcoin has fallen below the critical $100,000 support level, driven by hawkish Federal Reserve prospects and persistent whale selling. A classic Wyckoff Distribution pattern is strengthening the case for a potential decline toward $86,000, suggesting the bull run might actually be over. According to analysis, Bitcoin’s surge above $122,000 marked a Buying Climax, followed by an Automatic Reaction and Secondary Tests that failed to create higher highs. An early-October push toward $126,200 resembled an Upthrust After Distribution, signaling demand exhaustion. Subsequently, Bitcoin printed multiple Last Points of Supply and lost mid-range support near $110,000 and the AR/SOW zone ($102,000–$104,000), entering Phase E, which accelerates the decline. However, not all analysts are bearish. CryptoQuant CEO believes Bitcoin’s broader uptrend remains intact as long as the $94,000 level (the average cost basis of six- to twelve-month holders) holds. Bitwise CEO also suggested that Bitcoin may be nearing the end of a six-month bear market, with the current crypto setup being stronger than ever. The bearish shift is attributed to deteriorating global risk appetite, fears that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates in December, and the US government shutdown restricting access to key economic data, all of which rippled through risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Background
Bitcoin (BTC), as the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has its price movements influenced by a confluence of factors, including technical analysis patterns and macroeconomic conditions. The Wyckoff Distribution theory is a classic market analysis method based on supply and demand dynamics, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, aiming to identify market tops and bottoms. When price action aligns with a Wyckoff Distribution pattern, it often signals a potential significant decline for the asset. Federal Reserve monetary policy, particularly expectations regarding interest rate trajectories, profoundly impacts risk assets, including Bitcoin. Hawkish rhetoric or expectations of no rate cuts typically lead to decreased market risk appetite and capital outflow from riskier assets. Furthermore, political-economic events like government shutdowns can restrict the release of key economic data, amplifying market uncertainty and consequently influencing investor sentiment and asset prices.
In-Depth AI Insights
Given the current market environment, what structural contradictions in the market are reflected by the potential bear market indicated by the Wyckoff Distribution pattern versus the persistent bullish views of some analysts? - This reflects an ongoing tension between technical analysis signals and fundamental narratives. The Wyckoff pattern captures institutional distribution behavior, suggesting an internal market oversupply at higher price levels. - Conversely, bullish viewpoints might be based on long-term holders' average cost basis and increasing conviction in the expanding cryptocurrency infrastructure (such as ETFs), potentially overlooking short-term macroeconomic headwinds and technical weaknesses. - This contradiction is likely to lead to high market volatility in the short term, with both bulls and bears seeking confirmation signals. The true direction may hinge on a clear shift in macroeconomic policy, especially the Federal Reserve's rate cut path. Considering the actual stance of President Trump's administration on digital assets, and the dual pressures of inflation and economic growth faced by the Federal Reserve in 2025, can Bitcoin's support levels at $86,000 or $94,000 effectively withstand macroeconomic headwinds? - While complex, the Trump administration's stance on cryptocurrencies has generally not been severely repressive; instead, it may lean towards integrating digital assets through regulatory frameworks rather than outright stifling them. This provides some macro-level stability for the crypto market. - Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains the dominant factor. Amid persistent inflationary pressures and uncertain economic growth, the Fed in 2025 may maintain a hawkish stance or at least remain cautious about rate cuts. This