Retailers' holiday hiring to hit lowest level since the Great Recession, says major industry trade group
News Summary
The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts that holiday hiring by retailers in 2025 will be the lowest in at least 15 years, with an estimated 265,000 to 365,000 seasonal roles, a significant drop from last year's 442,000. NRF CEO Matthew Shay stated this reflects a "softening and slowing labor market." Despite the slowdown in hiring, the NRF still expects record holiday spending of $1.1 trillion to $1.2 trillion, a 3.7% to 4.2% year-over-year increase, marking the first time the total would top $1 trillion. This is a slight decrease from last year's 4.3% growth rate.
Background
The news is released in 2025 amid a prolonged U.S. government shutdown due to budget impasses, which has disrupted official economic data reporting, leading companies and economists to rely on private sector data. Against this backdrop, the Trump administration's tariff policies continue to exert cost pressures on retailers. Consumer sentiment remains low, and inflationary pressures persist, yet consumer spending has shown resilience. Holiday hiring data for retailers is a key indicator of labor market health, especially in an environment of heightened economic uncertainty, surging AI investment, and demographic and policy shifts (such as Baby Boomer retirements and the Trump administration's tighter immigration policies) affecting job creation needs.
In-Depth AI Insights
What deeper economic structural changes does the divergence between retail hiring and consumer spending reflect? This suggests that businesses, in uncertain environments, are maintaining output and profit through technological investment (e.g., AI) and optimizing existing labor, rather than increasing temporary hires to meet short-term demand fluctuations. Consumer spending resilience may partly stem from wealth effects (rising asset prices) and drawing down savings, rather than broad wage growth or confidence in the future economy. This decoupling signals a "efficiency-first, cautious expansion" new normal for the labor market, where businesses prefer leveraging technology to boost productivity over expanding their workforce, even during peak demand seasons. 面对不确定性和“效率优先”的趋势，投资者应如何重新评估零售行业的投资风险与机遇？ - 投资者应关注那些能够通过技术（AI、自动化）显著提升运营效率、降低劳动力成本的零售商。 - 传统劳动力密集型零售模式面临结构性挑战，其盈利能力可能持续承压。 - 尽管整体消费数据积极，但应警惕其可持续性，尤其是在缺乏强劲就业增长支撑的情况下。 - 关注零售商的库存管理能力和供应链韧性，以应对关税成本和不确定性。 - 假日季销售额增长放缓，结合招聘下降，可能预示着利润率压力而非单纯的收入增长，需警惕“增收不增利”的陷阱。