Nvidia’s Blackwell chips: Trump denies China access, but Treasury hints at future shift
News Summary
In 2025, the Trump administration has explicitly banned China from accessing Nvidia’s cutting-edge Blackwell chips, with President Trump emphasizing their advanced nature and exclusive availability to American companies. This stance significantly constrains Nvidia, which previously held a 95% market share in China before effectively being exiled. However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested that high-end Nvidia chips could eventually reach Chinese companies, citing technological evolution potentially rendering today’s “crown jewels” less formidable, and hinting at future negotiations between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. This directly contradicts Trump’s hardline public position, signaling potential policy flexibility as geopolitical winds shift or technology advances. Previously, Nvidia and AMD had an arrangement to share 15% of their China revenues with the US government for exporting less advanced chips (like Nvidia’s H20), generating approximately $3.48 billion annually for the Treasury. Meanwhile, South Korea is slated to receive over 260,000 Blackwell chips, illustrating a geopolitical reality where allied nations enjoy access while strategic competitors face restrictions.
Background
The current context is 2025, with Donald J. Trump as the incumbent US President. For several years, the US has implemented export controls on advanced semiconductor technology to China, citing national security concerns and aiming to curb China's technological and military advancements. Nvidia, a leading designer of AI chips, has been significantly impacted by these restrictions, losing its dominant market share in China. The Blackwell architecture represents Nvidia's latest generation of AI GPUs, succeeding the Hopper architecture (H100/H200 series), and offers substantial performance improvements critical for cutting-edge AI development. The tension between national security objectives (restricting China's access) and economic interests (US tech companies' desire for global market access, government revenue from export licenses) is a recurring theme in US-China tech policy.
In-Depth AI Insights
What is the underlying strategic tension between President Trump's hardline stance and Secretary Bessent's more pragmatic view, and what does this imply for long-term policy predictability? - Trump's stance prioritizes national security and maintaining a significant technological lead, framing advanced chips as exclusive American assets. This reflects a zero-sum game mentality where any access for China to cutting-edge tech directly undermines US interests. - Bessent's perspective is more economically pragmatic, acknowledging the inevitability of technological obsolescence and hinting at potential negotiations to secure economic benefits (like past revenue-sharing deals). This suggests differing internal assessments within the administration regarding the long-term costs and benefits of a complete blockade. - This tension implies that despite outward hardline rhetoric, US tech policy towards China is not monolithic. It likely seeks a dynamic balance between national security and economic interests, meaning future policy could oscillate between