$19B market crash paves way for Bitcoin’s rise to $200K: Standard Chartered
News Summary
Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, predicts Bitcoin is still on track to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. This forecast comes despite a record $19 billion market liquidation event that saw Bitcoin's price dip to a four-month low of $104,000. Kendrick views the aftermath of this massive liquidation as a potential accumulation phase and a significant "buying opportunity" for investors, expecting Bitcoin to rebound as markets stabilize. He dismisses US President Trump's renewed tariff threats as "noise," maintaining a bullish outlook. Even in a bear-case scenario, he foresees prices "well north of $150,000" by year-end, contingent on the Federal Reserve continuing interest rate cuts to meet market expectations. He attributes Bitcoin's anticipated rally primarily to continued inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), drawing parallels to gold's recent all-time highs and the re-emergence of Bitcoin's safe-haven narrative. Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded a strong rebound with $477 million in net positive inflows after several days of politically driven outflows. Kendrick had previously projected Bitcoin could surge to $500,000 by 2028, coinciding with the end of Trump's second term.
Background
The cryptocurrency market experienced a record $19 billion liquidation event on the weekend of October 10, 2025, causing Bitcoin's price to dip to a four-month low of $104,000. Bitcoin's price had fallen 6% over the preceding month. Donald Trump is the incumbent US President, having been re-elected in November 2024, and has issued renewed tariff threats. Concurrently, the US Federal Reserve is anticipated to continue cutting interest rates to meet market expectations. Institutional inflows into the crypto market have been significant since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, and gold's performance as a safe-haven asset provides context for Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative.
In-Depth AI Insights
Given the massive liquidation event and geopolitical noise, is Standard Chartered's $200K forecast overly optimistic, overlooking persistent structural weaknesses or macro headwinds in the market? - Kendrick's forecast relies on assumptions of "market stabilization" and an "accumulation phase," which might underestimate the underlying leverage risks that led to the $19 billion liquidation. - While ETF inflows are positive, politically driven outflows indicate high market sensitivity to macro events. Trump's tariff threats could be more than just "noise," representing a tangible factor influencing risk asset sentiment. - The expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts is favorable, but if the rate cut path deviates due to inflation or economic data, Bitcoin's rebound momentum could weaken, facing renewed selling pressure. The "safe-haven asset" narrative for Bitcoin and gold is increasingly converging. What are the strategic implications of this for Bitcoin's long-term valuation and institutional adoption? - Gold's recent all-time highs and its traditional safe-haven status provide significant validation for Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative, helping to attract institutional investors seeking inflation and geopolitical hedges. - This convergence strengthens Bitcoin's legitimacy as a store of value rather than purely a speculative asset, potentially increasing its weight in diversified investment portfolios. - However, Bitcoin's volatility as a "safe-haven asset" remains significantly higher than gold's, which might limit its appeal during severe market dislocations, requiring institutions to carefully weigh risks during allocation. With Trump's re-election, what are the potentially underestimated long-term impacts of his economic policies on the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin? - The Trump administration's "tariff noise" could signal broader protectionism, leading to increased global economic uncertainty, which might inadvertently boost investor interest in non-sovereign digital assets like Bitcoin. - Conversely, if the Trump administration were to adopt a more stringent stance on cryptocurrency regulation (even if currently less likely), it could hinder crypto innovation and market liquidity in the US and globally. - In the long term, if Trump's fiscal policies lead to a weaker dollar or increased inflation, Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge would further strengthen, but the inherent policy uncertainty itself represents a risk.