China reports 4.8% quarterly GDP growth, moving closer to annual target
News Summary
China's economy grew 4.8% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, aligning with expectations and bringing it closer to achieving its annual growth target despite increasing external uncertainties. The National Bureau of Statistics' figure slightly surpassed the 4.76% forecast by economists in a Wind survey. This growth rate marked a deceleration from the 5.2% expansion in Q2 and 5.4% in Q1. China's cumulative economic growth for the first three quarters reached 5.2%, consistent with Beijing's annual GDP target of "around 5%." These figures were released on the opening day of the highly anticipated Fourth Plenum, where discussions are expected to outline the 15th Five-Year Plan. Concurrently, China's economy continues to face challenges such as renewed trade tensions with the United States, weak domestic demand, and a persistent slump in the property market.
Background
In 2025, China set an annual GDP growth target of "around 5%." This target was established amidst multiple global economic uncertainties, particularly persistent trade tensions with the United States. Despite macroeconomic headwinds, the Chinese government has been actively employing various policy tools to stabilize growth. China's property market, a critical component of its economy, has faced significant downward pressure in recent years, impacting consumer confidence and local government finances. Concurrently, weak domestic demand reflects cautious consumer spending and investment sentiment. Plenary sessions of the Communist Party's Central Committee, such as the Fourth Plenum, are crucial political events that determine the direction of China's economic and social development for the upcoming five-year period, including the 15th Five-Year Plan.
In-Depth AI Insights
How should one interpret China's decelerating yet on-target GDP growth? Does this mask underlying structural weaknesses? - While Q3's 4.8% growth keeps China on track for its annual target, the continuous deceleration from 5.2% and 5.4% in previous quarters suggests waning economic momentum. - This slowdown isn't solely external; weak domestic demand and a persistent property slump are deep-seated structural issues that could signal broader economic transition challenges. - Meeting the "around 5%" target may involve significant fiscal and monetary support, which might not fundamentally resolve structural contradictions and could lead to inefficiencies or risk accumulation in the long run. What impact will the Fourth Plenum and the outline for the 15th Five-Year Plan have on China's future economic strategy amidst current challenges? - Against a backdrop of slowing growth and increased external uncertainties, the 15th Five-Year Plan is likely to emphasize "high-quality development" over mere speed, focusing on technological self-sufficiency, green transition, and domestic market circulation. - Facing intensified trade tensions with the Trump administration, the plan may reinforce the "dual circulation" strategy, prioritizing domestic supply chains and technological innovation to reduce reliance on external markets. - The ongoing property market downturn might shift policy focus from demand stimulus to risk control and structural reforms, potentially involving tighter financial regulation and long-term rental market development. With the Trump administration's re-election, what are the specific investment implications of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions for China's economy and global supply chains? - The normalization and potential escalation of U.S.-China trade friction will accelerate the restructuring of global supply chains. Investors should focus on companies that can adapt to or benefit from "de-risking" and supply chain diversification. - For multinational corporations operating in China, this could mean higher operating costs and market access uncertainties, prompting re-evaluation of production layouts and market strategies. - China will boost investment in critical technology sectors to counter external sanction risks, presenting structural investment opportunities in domestic semiconductors, AI, and new energy industries, albeit with elevated policy risks.