Bitcoin retests golden cross, a break above could trigger major rally: Analyst

Global
Source: CointelegraphPublished: 10/12/2025, 07:38:01 EDT
Rare Earths
US-China Trade War
Tariffs
Bitcoin
Global Supply Chain
Bitcoin retests golden cross, a break above could trigger major rally: Analyst

News Summary

Crypto market analyst Mister Crypto notes that Bitcoin (BTC) is retesting the “golden cross,” a bullish technical pattern that has historically preceded major rallies, with gains of 2,200% in 2017 and 1,190% in 2020. He suggests that holding above $110,000 could ignite another parabolic move. However, analyst Mac warns that BTC must hold the $110,000 level to avoid signaling the end of the current cycle, although the 4-hour Money Flow Index (MFI) is deeply oversold, suggesting a short-term bounce. Meanwhile, Fundstrat’s co-founder Tom Lee believes the recent stock market pullback “may be overdue,” and highlights a significant VIX spike as typically signaling a short-term market bottom. This market sell-off followed US President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports starting November 1, in retaliation for China’s new export restrictions on rare earth minerals.

Background

A “golden cross” is a bullish technical analysis pattern that occurs when a short-term moving average (e.g., 50-day) crosses above a long-term moving average (e.g., 200-day). It is typically interpreted as a shift from bearish to bullish market momentum, suggesting prices may begin to rise. The Volatility Index (VIX) measures the market's expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30 days. A spike in the VIX often indicates investor fear or a rush to hedge, and historical data frequently interprets it as a sign of a short-term market bottom. Donald J. Trump, during his previous and current presidential terms, has frequently imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, using them as a tool in trade negotiations. Rare earth minerals are a group of 17 key elements critical for high-tech and military applications, with China dominating global supply.

In-Depth AI Insights

What are the true strategic objectives behind the Trump administration's 100% tariffs on Chinese imports? - While ostensibly a retaliation for China's rare earth export restrictions, deeper goals likely include: - Accelerated Supply Chain Decoupling: Forcing U.S. companies to completely shift production and supply chains away from China, particularly in strategically critical materials like rare earths, to reduce dependence and enhance national security. - Domestic Industry Reshoring: Making Chinese goods prohibitively expensive to incentivize American manufacturing to return home, creating jobs and garnering political support. - Geopolitical Leverage: Using extreme tariffs as a strong-arm tactic in the broader U.S.-China geopolitical competition to counter China's economic influence and technological advancements. - Electoral Cycle Considerations: Maintaining a tough stance on China to solidify his support base for a potential 2028 election or pave the way for future policy agendas. How might China's rare earth export restrictions and the new tariffs reshape the global tech and manufacturing landscape? - This is not just a trade war escalation but a profound restructuring of global supply chains: - Accelerated Non-Chinese Rare Earth Development: Spurring the U.S. and its allies to invest heavily in developing and establishing non-Chinese rare earth mining, processing, and refining capabilities, albeit at significant time and cost. - Increased Costs for Critical Technologies: Components containing rare earths (e.g., EV motors, wind turbines, military equipment) will see significantly higher costs, potentially slowing the growth of certain high-tech industries. - Innovation in Substitution: Stimulating research into rare earth substitutes and more efficient utilization technologies to reduce reliance on single-source suppliers. - Reinforced Geopolitical Alliances: Prompting the U.S. and its allies to form tighter cooperative alliances on critical mineral supply chains to collectively address China's dominance. What are the deeper implications of Bitcoin and the broader market's reaction to geopolitical risks? - The market sell-off following Trump's tariff announcement, and Bitcoin's behavior amid uncertainty, reveals several underlying trends: - Normalization of Geopolitical Risk: Investors have internalized U.S.-China trade/tech conflict as a persistent, normalized risk factor, with each escalation triggering a reflexive flight to safety. - "Digital Gold" Narrative Challenged: Despite Bitcoin often being touted as "digital gold" or a safe haven, its initial reaction during extreme geopolitical shocks often mirrors that of risk assets, suggesting its safe-haven function is not absolute and short-term liquidity and volatility still dominate. - Policy Uncertainty Premium: Markets are pricing in a high premium for significant policy uncertainty, especially in critical trade and technology sectors. This could lead to more cautious corporate investment decisions and a shift of capital towards more predictable safe-haven assets rather than traditionally high-growth assets.