CPI inflation report will be released by Labor Department, while other data is delayed by shutdown
News Summary
The U.S. Labor Department will resume work on the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, despite the ongoing federal government shutdown. This decision follows a pause in work due to the shutdown plan, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is bringing staff back to ensure the data's release. The CPI report, which measures price changes for a broad basket of goods and services, is now scheduled for release on October 24, nine days later than its original October 15 date. The Social Security Administration's urgent need for third-quarter CPI data for calculating annual cost-of-living adjustments before November 1 is cited as the primary reason for prioritizing this particular release. However, other critical BLS data releases, including the nonfarm payroll report, remain delayed. The federal government shutdown, which began last week due to a lapse in funding, continues as the Senate has repeatedly failed to pass funding bills.
Background
A U.S. federal government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass appropriations bills, leading to the partial or full closure of federal agencies. In October 2025, the federal government entered a shutdown after the Senate failed for the seventh time to pass funding bills. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). CPI data is crucial for economic analysis and policy, particularly for the Social Security Administration (SSA), which requires third-quarter CPI data to calculate annual Cost-of-Living Adjustments (COLA) that must be published before November 1.
In-Depth AI Insights
Why is the U.S. government selectively resuming data releases, and what are the market sentiment implications? - Prioritizing Stability over Comprehensive Resolution: The Trump administration's selective resumption of CPI data release aims to stabilize critical economic expectations, especially inflation adjustments directly tied to Social Security benefits, to prevent public alarm and political pressure. This is a "patchwork" strategy rather than a commitment to fully resolving the shutdown. - Market Uncertainty during Data Vacuum: Markets are highly sensitive to economic data, particularly inflation figures. The delayed CPI release has already fueled uncertainty. Once released, if the data deviates significantly from expectations, either higher or lower, it could trigger sharp short-term volatility, especially with other crucial data (like nonfarm payrolls) still missing, leaving the market without a comprehensive economic picture. - Signal of Protracted Political Gridlock: The selective resumption of data, rather than passing appropriations bills, signals intensifying partisan gridlock. This could lead to more frequent and longer government shutdowns, posing long-term risks to U.S. economic growth expectations, federal program operations, and investor confidence. What are the potential impacts of this shutdown on the Trump administration's economic agenda and the 2026 midterm elections? - Eroding Economic Resilience: Persistent government shutdowns can undermine the resilience of the U.S. economy. The absence of crucial economic data, coupled with disruptions to federal services, could deter business investment and consumer spending, thereby dragging down economic growth and running counter to the Trump administration's "America First" economic growth objectives. - Political Capital Expenditure: While shutdowns might be used as a bargaining chip by the administration, in the long run, they erode the Trump administration's political capital and could become a central point of attack for Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections. Voter dissatisfaction with government dysfunction and economic uncertainty could translate into votes. - Inefficient Policy Execution: Government shutdowns directly impact the efficiency of policy execution, potentially hindering progress on core agendas such as manufacturing reshoring and infrastructure development. This could delay the effectiveness of economic stimulus measures and negatively affect the long-term investment environment.