Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: RSI Hints at Oversold Zone, Can Bulls Stage a Comeback?
News Summary
WTI crude oil stabilized near $61, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and new U.S. sanctions on Iran's oil trade. EIA data showed a second consecutive rise in U.S. inventories, keeping traders cautious amid mixed demand signals. Natural gas prices slipped below $3.30, with bearish momentum building and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) nearing 33, suggesting it's approaching an oversold zone. Technical indicators confirm a short-term bearish trend, with resistance at $3.33-$3.34. WTI crude is trading around $61.20, struggling to break above $61.80, with the 50-period and 200-period EMAs acting as resistance. Brent crude slipped below short-term support at $65.35, with an RSI of 38 indicating bearish pressure but not yet oversold. The broader trend for both crude benchmarks remains weak, with buyers cautious ahead of fresh supply and storage data.
Background
The current energy market is influenced by a confluence of factors. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East previously supported oil prices, but the emergence of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire framework has temporarily eased some risk premiums. However, new U.S. sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on entities linked to Iran's oil trade underscore a sustained hawkish policy, potentially restricting Iranian crude supply and providing a floor to oil prices. Concurrently, OPEC+ maintains a cautious production increase strategy amidst uncertain global demand prospects, aiming to balance the market. The consecutive rise in U.S. crude inventories and upcoming natural gas supply data further contribute to short-term uncertainty and volatility in the energy market. Technical indicators such as RSI and EMAs are widely used to assess current trends and potential reversal points.
In-Depth AI Insights
To what extent do the Trump administration's new sanctions on Iran offset the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and how does this affect the long-term structure of the oil market? - The Trump administration's new sanctions on Iran's oil trade, even amidst easing geopolitical tensions, signal a continuation of its