Bitcoin Rockets To $123,000 As Standard Chartered Forecasts $135,000 Target
News Summary
Bitcoin (BTC) has surged 3% to over $123,000 on Friday, following a forecast from Standard Chartered that projects a near-term target of $135,000. This bullish outlook is attributed to strong ETF inflows and a deviation from its historical post-halving pattern. Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Assets Research, highlighted that Bitcoin has broken its historical tendency to weaken 18 months after halving events. He argues that this cycle is receiving stronger support from rising institutional flows and U.S. fiscal dynamics. Kendrick noted $58 billion in net Bitcoin ETF inflows this year, with $23 billion arriving in 2025 alone, and anticipates another $20 billion by December, making his $200,000 long-term projection feasible. Technically, Bitcoin has rebounded from its $107,000–$111,000 base, clearing resistance across its 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs. The price is currently testing the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $120,853. On-chain data indicates nearly $248 million in outflows on Thursday, suggesting traders are moving coins to custody, a factor that often amplifies rallies amid sustained demand. The daily RSI stands at 67, indicating strong momentum but approaching overbought conditions.
Background
Bitcoin, as the first and largest cryptocurrency, has a price history influenced by various factors, including its quadrennial "halving" events, which reduce the supply of new coins and aim to control inflation. Historically, these events have often been followed by periods of price volatility. Since the U.S. SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, institutional investor interest and access to cryptocurrencies have significantly increased. Analyst reports from major financial institutions like Standard Chartered play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and directing institutional capital flows. The current U.S. fiscal policies under the Donald Trump administration can have an indirect impact on market liquidity and the attractiveness of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
In-Depth AI Insights
Does Standard Chartered's bullish forecast signal a fundamental shift in Bitcoin's market structure? Yes, it likely reflects a structural shift rather than mere short-term speculation. Standard Chartered's analyst explicitly notes a departure from historical post-halving weakness, emphasizing institutional ETF inflows and U.S. fiscal dynamics as key supports. This suggests Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as an institutionally investable asset, with its value drivers moving beyond retail sentiment and technical cyclicity to deeper macroeconomic and traditional finance integration. Given current technical indicators and on-chain data, what are the potential risks and alternative scenarios for Bitcoin's current rally? - Technically, the price is testing a significant long-term resistance level, and the daily RSI is approaching overbought conditions, suggesting potential for a short-term pullback. A failure to sustain above $121,000 could lead to a retreat towards the $117,000 support. - While on-chain outflows indicate coins moving to custody (often bullish), this positive effect could diminish if demand doesn't consistently match the reduced exchange supply. - Despite strong institutional inflows, a sudden shift in the broader macroeconomic environment (e.g., higher-than-expected U.S. inflation prompting Federal Reserve tightening) or regulatory policies could swiftly alter market sentiment. What are the long-term implications of sustained institutional capital inflow for Bitcoin's positioning and the traditional financial landscape? - This solidifies Bitcoin's emerging status as a macro asset, rather than merely a high-risk speculative tool. As more traditional financial products and services emerge, Bitcoin's liquidity and market depth will further improve. - This integration could also spur greater innovation and competition among traditional financial institutions in the digital asset space, accelerating the adoption of blockchain technology across broader financial services. - However, it might also lead to increased correlation between Bitcoin's price movements and traditional risk assets like equities, potentially diminishing its appeal as an uncorrelated hedge in certain scenarios.