CGTN: What's new about China's 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions
News Summary
On September 24, 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiled China's 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) at the UN Climate Summit. The pledges include reducing economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels and expanding wind and solar power installed capacity to over six times 2020 levels, reaching 3,600 gigawatts. These new contributions build upon the 2020 targets of peaking carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. China has made significant progress in carbon sequestration, its carbon trading system, and clean energy transition. By August 2025, the national carbon market hit record trading volumes, with 2024 seeing a 10.8% reduction in the power sector's carbon intensity compared to 2018. China also launched a national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction market, significantly expanded afforestation, and improved air quality. Internationally, President Xi underscored the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. Since 2016, China has mobilized over 177 billion yuan to aid developing nations in clean energy and climate resilience, signing 54 climate cooperation agreements with 42 countries. China advocates for strengthened international coordination in green technologies and industries to ensure the benefits of green development reach globally.
Background
China first announced its ambitious "dual carbon" goals in 2020, aiming to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and striving for carbon neutrality before 2060. These targets form the bedrock of China's climate policy. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are at the heart of the Paris Agreement, where countries outline their climate action plans and emission reduction targets. China first submitted its NDCs in 2015 and updated its commitments in 2020. The 2035 NDCs, unveiled in 2025, represent a further concretization and escalation of these existing pledges, providing more specific quantitative targets to drive domestic green transition and international climate cooperation.
In-Depth AI Insights
Beyond environmental protection, what are the deeper strategic and economic motivations behind China's seemingly ambitious 2035 NDCs? China's updated NDCs are not merely an environmental declaration but are underpinned by multiple strategic considerations: - Global Leadership in Green Technologies and Industries: By setting high targets, China aims to further solidify its manufacturing and innovation dominance in key green industries such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and battery technology, positioning itself as the core of the global green supply chain. - Energy Security and Economic Resilience: Reducing reliance on fossil fuels and expanding wind and solar capacity helps enhance China's energy independence, mitigating geopolitical risks to energy supply, while also promoting the optimization and upgrading of its economic structure. - Pre-empting Potential Trade Barriers: Policies like the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could impose tariffs on high-carbon emission products. Proactive planning and demonstrating emission reduction resolve can help reduce the risk of future carbon tariffs on Chinese exports, maintaining international trade competitiveness. - Enhancing International Discourse Power and Influence: Demonstrating leadership in climate governance, especially with the US Trump administration potentially taking a conservative stance on climate issues, allows China to garner support from more developing countries and elevate its position in the global governance system. How might these expanded climate commitments impact specific sectors within China and globally, especially given the new administration in the US? These new NDCs will have profound implications for several sectors: - Domestically within China: There will be clear benefits for renewable energy equipment manufacturers (wind turbines, PV modules), energy storage technology companies, the EV industry and its supply chain, and smart grid technology providers. Traditional high-emission industries like steel, cement, and chemicals will face greater pressure to reduce emissions, accelerating technological upgrades and transformation, or potentially being phased out. The carbon trading market will likely expand in scope and activity. - Globally: China's massive investment and capacity expansion in green technologies could intensify competition in global green product markets. Against the backdrop of the Trump administration's "America First" policy and potential trade protectionism, competition and potential friction between the US and China in green industries will likely escalate. Other regions, such as Europe, may need to re-evaluate their own green industrial development strategies to contend with Chinese competition. What are the potential risks or challenges in achieving these ambitious targets, and what are the implications for long-term investment strategies? While the targets are ambitious, the path to achievement is not without challenges: - Balancing Energy Security and Decarbonization: Rapidly decarbonizing while ensuring stable energy supply amid continuous economic growth and increasing energy demand remains a complex and ongoing challenge. - Technological Bottlenecks and Costs: Key technologies like large-scale energy storage, carbon capture, and sequestration still require breakthroughs, and initial costs are high, potentially imposing short-term economic pressure. - Local Government Execution: Ensuring that local governments effectively implement central emission reduction policies, avoiding a "one-size-fits-all" approach or inflated reporting, is crucial for policy success. - Geopolitical Uncertainties: Tensions in US-China relations could impact access to critical green technologies and the stability of global supply chains, posing external risks to China's ability to meet its goals. Long-term investment strategies should therefore focus on: - Green Supply Chain Resilience: Investing in green technology companies with robust localized supply chains or diversified international collaborations to mitigate geopolitical risks. - Cross-Sector Integration Capabilities: Looking at companies that can offer energy management, smart manufacturing, and digital solutions, which are key to systemic emission reductions. - Emerging Technology Innovation: Positioning in companies at the forefront of hydrogen energy, nuclear power, advanced energy storage, and negative emission technologies, which represent potential growth areas for deep decarbonization in the future.