Bitcoin analyst predicts 35% rally after 9th bullish RSI signal fires
News Summary
Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating above $115,000 as the market anticipates the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) interest rate decision. Crypto investor Jelle notes that the weekly stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI) has triggered its ninth bullish signal this cycle, historically leading to an average 35% rally and potentially pushing Bitcoin towards $155,000. Economist Timothy Peterson's model also suggests Bitcoin could reach $200,000 within 170 days. However, short-term price action remains cautious. Analyst Skew warns of new ask-bid liquidity clustered near $116,000, potentially indicating market maker manipulation rather than organic positioning, and highlights persistent supply into rallies. CryptoQuant data indicates eight of ten bull market indicators have turned bearish, signaling cooling momentum. Despite this, traders like RookieXBT argue that a strong macroeconomic backdrop, including the dollar index at 15-year support, a rallying S&P 500, and a surging gold price, favors risk assets like Bitcoin. On-chain signals also show short-term holder whales are back in profit after defending the $108,000–$109,000 zone. With Bitcoin trading just 8% below its all-time high, the market is at a crossroads, and the FOMC decision could be decisive for whether the latest RSI signal ignites another cycle-defining rally.
Background
Currently, Bitcoin's price is consolidating above $115,000, with the market closely watching the Federal Reserve's (FOMC) upcoming interest rate decision. Since Donald J. Trump's re-election as US President in November 2024, his administration's economic policies could continue to influence market liquidity and risk asset appetite. In the cryptocurrency market, technical analysis indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and historical cycle patterns are frequently used to forecast price movements. Concurrently, on-chain data provides unique insights into market structure and investor behavior. Recently, the performance of macro assets such as the Dollar Index (DXY), S&P 500, and gold has also provided a crucial market backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin.
In-Depth AI Insights
How reliable are technical indicators and historical cycle patterns in a market increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors and potential manipulation? - While historical data suggests a correlation between specific technical signals (like bullish RSI crossovers) and significant rallies, their predictive power is challenged in the current complex market. Analysts like Skew point to concentrated liquidity near $116,000 potentially stemming from market maker manipulation rather than genuine market demand, which undermines the reliability of purely chart-based signals. - Furthermore, CryptoQuant's observation that eight of ten bull market indicators have turned bearish suggests weakening fundamental momentum, contrasting with the technical bullish signal. This implies investors must consider external macroeconomic factors (e.g., FOMC decisions) and structural market changes when evaluating purely technical signals. Given the split market sentiment and conflicting indicators, what are the primary drivers for Bitcoin's price trajectory in the near term, and what does this imply for investor positioning? - The immediate primary driver for Bitcoin's price is the FOMC interest rate decision this week. This decision will directly impact market liquidity and appetite for risk assets, potentially overriding or amplifying any technical signals. - Investors are facing a scenario where macroeconomic tailwinds (weak dollar index, strong equities and gold) coexist with micro-level headwinds (cooling momentum, potential manipulation). This suggests a period of high market volatility without clear directional conviction. Investors should be wary of sharp short-term movements and may need to await a definitive break above the $117,000-$118,000 resistance or below the $108,000-$109,000 support to confirm a new structural trend. With Donald J. Trump as the incumbent US President in 2025, how might his administration's policies or rhetoric impact the broader risk asset landscape, specifically Bitcoin, given its sensitivity to regulatory and liquidity shifts? - The Trump administration's policies typically favor deregulation and economic growth, which could indirectly benefit risk assets, including Bitcoin, by maintaining or increasing market liquidity. For instance, if the administration pursues stimulative fiscal measures or adopts a clearer, more favorable regulatory stance towards cryptocurrencies, market sentiment could be boosted. - However, the unpredictability of the Trump administration could also introduce volatility. Any unexpected trade policies, geopolitical rhetoric, or interventions in specific industries could rapidly shift market risk appetite. For Bitcoin, while sensitive to macro liquidity, the specific regulatory direction and the government's stance on digital assets will be key points of investor focus, potentially determining its long-term risk premium to a greater extent.