Tom Lee Predicts Bull Market Through 2035, Citing AI, Blockchain As Key Drivers
News Summary
Tom Lee, Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, forecasts the current bull market will extend through 2035, primarily driven by millennial demographic trends and transformative technologies like artificial intelligence and blockchain. He emphasizes that demographic cycles explain nearly every bull market since 1890, predicting the millennial workforce peak around 2035 as a rough waypoint for a major market top. Despite two 20% declines causing confusion since 2020, Lee identifies a new bull market beginning after the February-April 2025 correction. Current market performance supports optimism, with the S&P 500 up 10.79% year-to-date and 85.34% over five years. Lee identifies three key drivers for his decade-long outlook: a surge in the U.S. prime-age workforce (millennials and Gen Z entering peak earning years), substantial wealth transfers over the next 20 years shifting from credit to equity exposure, and U.S. leadership in AI and blockchain technologies. He expects these trends to boost the financial and healthcare sectors, potentially reaching 40% of the S&P 500 for the financial sector. Research from Carson Group also supports the potential for extended bull markets.
Background
Tom Lee is the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, known for his demographic-focused methodology which has a track record of successfully identifying market turning points, such as correctly pinpointing the 2009 market bottom. His analysis centers on linking demographic trends to market performance, viewing generational workforce peaks as key indicators for major bull market tops. The current market, despite experiencing periods of volatility, has been generally rising since 2020 and has recovered from an early 2025 correction, providing a backdrop for this long-term bullish forecast.
In-Depth AI Insights
How robust is the demographic argument against unforeseen macroeconomic or geopolitical shocks, especially under the Trump administration? - Tom Lee's demographic model, while historically validated, is primarily based on domestic factors and might underestimate external shocks from global macroeconomic and geopolitical events. - During President Trump's second term,